Nato could face a Soviet-style mass army in the next decade as Vladimir Putin takes on an ‘ambitious’ reform of his military.
Estonia’s intelligence agency has warned of a paradigm shift in Russia’s arsenal – with plans to bolster both command structures and personnel strength over the coming years.
Strategic recalibrations – as a direct response to the Western alliance’s expansion – are laid bare, with the Kremlin’s goal being to achieve ‘military dominance’ in the Baltic Sea region.
‘The success and timeline of Russia’s military reform will be largely determined by the course of the war in Ukraine,’ the report from Estonia’s Valisluureamet said.
‘If Russia manages to implement the reform, Nato could face a Soviet-style mass army in the next decade.
‘This army is likely to be technologically inferior to Nato allies’ defence forces in most areas, except for electronic warfare and long-range strike capabilities.
‘However, its military potential would be significant, owing to its size, firepower (including artillery and numerous inexpensive combat drones), combat experience and reserves.’
This is the latest of a growing list of warnings that Nato must be better prepared for a potential war with Russia.
Under the stewardship of defence minister Sergei Shoiguit, it is said the Kremlin is planning to double its forces on borders with Estonia and other members of the alliance.
According to the report, the number of soldiers is set to rise from 1.15 million to 1.5 million by 2026.
Dozens of new units are planned to be created in all land, air, and naval forces, as well as in the airborne troops.
Russia’s highest priority for force generation lies in the Western strategic direction and Ukraine.
But after that, it will focus on its borders with Finland, where its military presence was minimal until the country’s recent accession to Nato.
The report said: ‘Russia plans to create a 44th Army Corps, based in Petrozavodsk, to address this. This formation will probably be built around at least two or three manoeuvre units with around a dozen fire support and combat support units.’
Finland’s accession added 800 miles of Nato border with Russia, a major setback for Putin, who has sought to decrease the expansion.
Sweden, which applied to the alliance at the same time as its neighbour after the invasion of Ukraine, is also set to join in the near future.
The report also pointed to an increase in Russian forces near the Estonian border in the coming years.
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‘The growth of Russian military capabilities in Estonia’s vicinity in the Leningrad and Pskov Oblasts primarily results from the potential transformation of existing units into divisions,’ it said.
‘According to one possible scenario, the personnel strength of Russian land forces and airborne troops in the Estonian direction may nearly double from 19,000 before February 24, 2022.’
The extent to which the units will achieve combat readiness depends on Russia’s ability to recruit, train and retain soldiers.
The report was released as Russian police included Estonia’s prime minister Kaja Kallas and Estonian state secretary Taimar Peterkop to its wanted list.
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