The Eurovision Song Contest 2025 might still be a few weeks away – but fans might have already decided their winner.
Starting in 1956, Eurovision tasks European countries with sending their brightest and best singers to represent them on the continental stage and bring musical glory back home.
This year, Remember Monday are the UK’s hope – their entry song What the Hell Just Happened? combines theatricality with ambition and will be hoping to go one better than 2022 runner-up Sam Ryder.
But it appears their hopes of winning Eurovision 2025 on May 17 have already been a dealt a major blow, with one clear frontrunner emerging – and it’s not the UK.
Eurovoix’s prediction software, called The Model – which is ‘made by Eurovision fans for Eurovision fans’ – currently has France’s entry Louane out in front, ahead of everyone else.
The Model ‘uses data like betting odds, community song rankings, historical voting patterns, and even internal musical statistics to try and predict which songs stand the best chance of winning the contest’.
Louane’s song Maman is apparently on track to get nearly 500 points from the combined voting jury and European televotes, at least 30 points clear of predicted runners-up Sweden.
Two weeks ago, Sweden were tipped to be winners by Eurovoix, but a fresh update has sent them down one place to second, with France now predicted to take home the crown.
France last won Eurovision in 1977, almost 50 years ago, when Marie Myriam’s song L’Oiseau et l’Enfant (The Bird and the Child) beat the UK’s entry by just 15 points.
It’s not great news for Remember Monday however, with the UK’s entry predicted by The Model to finish second from bottom on just 38 points, only ahead of Luxembourg.
In 2024, The Model correctly predicted that Switzerland’s Nemo would win the competition (after initially estimating that seventh place Italy would win).
However, despite its accurate estimation from 2024, the sample size to test The Model’s accuracy remains small, with it having only been introduced last year.
According to bookmakers, Sweden’s entry KAJ are still expected to win this year, with France currently in third and the UK expected to at least make the top half of the 26-country rankings.
Speaking to Metro, the three members of Remember Monday – Holly-Anne, Charlotte, and Lauren – admitted they aren’t planning on ‘doing it for the points’ during the Grand Final.
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When asked about being 40-1 to win with some bookmakers, Holly-Anne admitted to ‘making a conscious decision’ not to keep an eye on the odds, as she ‘cannot have [her] live performance affected in any way’.
She continued: ‘We’re not doing it for the points. We’re doing it to watch that video back and be so proud of what we’ve done at that stage.
‘You look at the history within Eurovision, the amount of winners that were like 20th in the bookies’ bets. It doesn’t mean anything,’ she stated, prompting Lauren to jokingly quip: ‘You hear that bookies?’
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Watch the Eurovision Grand Final on May 17, BBC One at 8pm.
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